Iindawo Ezishushu Zamva Nje KwiiTransformers Ze-Global Medium Ne-High Voltage (2025-2026)

1. Ukuphuculwa kweMigangatho yokuSebenza kakuhle kwamandla kunye noGuquko oluHlaza: Uhlengahlengiso olutsha lwamandla njengeNto ephambili

Ehlabathini jikelele, iimfuno zokonga amandla aphakathi kunye Isiguquli seVolthi ephezuluIi-s ziyakhawuleza, kwaye ukungabikho kwemigangatho yokusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kwicala elitsha lokuvelisa amandla kube yeyona nto iphambili kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Ngo-Epreli 2024, iTshayina ikhuphe inguqulelo entsha yeMinimum Allowable Values ​​of Energy Efficiency kunye ne-Energy Efficiency Grades for Power Transformers (GB20052-2024), eyaqaliswa ngokusesikweni ngoFebruwari 2025. Okokuqala ngqa, lo mgangatho ubandakanya ii-transformers ze-6kV-66kV zokuvelisa amandla amatsha (i-photovoltaic, amandla omoya, ukugcinwa kwamandla) kwimigaqo yokusebenza kakuhle kwamandla enyanzelekileyo, egubungela iimeko ze-voltage eziphambili zoqhagamshelo olutsha lwegridi yamandla (umz., ii-transformers ze-35kV ezintywilisiweyo/zohlobo olomileyo zenza ngaphezulu kwe-95% yezicelo kwicandelo elitsha lamandla).

Injongo ephambili yophuculo olusemgangathweni kukunciphisa ilahleko zothumelo oluvela kumandla amatsha. Xa sithatha ii-transformers ze-35kV ezifakwe kwi-oyile njengomzekelo, ilahleko yokusetyenziswa kwamandla kweBanga lesi-3 phantsi komgangatho omtsha yehle nge-30% xa kuthelekiswa nohlobo oludala (GB6451-2015), kwaye ukusebenza kwamandla kweBanga loku-1 kwehle nge-10%; ilahleko yokusetyenziswa kwamandla kwe-35kV eyomileyo (iBanga lesi-3) yehle nge-20% xa kuthelekiswa nomgangatho woshishino (NB/T31062-2014). Ngokutsho koqikelelo, ukuba zonke ii-transformers zamandla amatsha eTshayina ziphuculwe ukusuka kwibanga le-S11 ukuya kwibanga le-S20, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunokunciphisa ngeetoni ezingama-55 ezigidi, okulingana nezihlandlo ezi-2.8 zokuveliswa kwamandla kwiSitishi sikaGezhouba Hydropower ngo-2021.

Olu setyenziso olusemgangathweni alukhuthazi nje kuphela utshintsho kwishishini le-transformer laseTshayina ukuya ekusebenzeni kakuhle okuphezulu kunye ne-carbon ephantsi​ kodwa lukwabonelela ngesakhelo esibalulekileyo sokubhekisa ekusebenziseni kakuhle amandla kuqhagamshelo lwegridi entsha yamandla kwihlabathi liphela.

1. I-Smart Grid kunye ne-AI Demand-Driven: Ii-Solid-State Transformers (ii-SST) Ziba yiNext-Generation Core​

Ngenxa yokuqhuma kwamandla ekhompyutha e-AI (umz., ukuqeqesha iimodeli ezinkulu zeChatGPT kusebenzisa umbane olingana nezithuthi zeTesla ezingama-3,000 eziqhuba iikhilomitha ezingama-320,000) kunye nokukhawuleziswa kokwakhiwa kwegridi ekrelekrele, ii-transformers zemveli azisenakwanelisa iimfuno zobuninzi bamandla aphezulu kunye nolawulo oluguquguqukayo. Ii-transformers ze-Solid-state (ii-SST), ezineenzuzo zazo zobukhulu obuncinci, ukusebenza kakuhle okuphezulu, kunye nenkxaso yokuhamba kwamandla okuhamba kweendlela ezimbini, ziye zaba yinto ephambili kuphando lwetekhnoloji kunye nengqwalasela yemarike kutshanje.

Ii-SST zisebenzisa ubuchwepheshe bokuguqula amandla e-elektroniki obusebenzisa amandla aphezulu. Xa kuthelekiswa nee-transformers zemveli ze-industrial-frequency, zinciphisa ivolumu nge-50%-80% kunye nobunzima nge-60%-80%, kwaye zinokufikelela kulawulo lwe-voltage olunamandla lwe-millisecond kunye ne-constant voltage output, nto leyo ezenza zifaneleke ngakumbi kwiimeko ezifana namaziko edatha e-AI, uqhagamshelo olutsha lwegridi yamandla, kunye nezitishi zokutshaja ezikhawulezayo kakhulu. Umzekelo, iphepha elimhlophe lamva nje le-NVIDIA lidwelisa ii-SST njengesisombululo esikhethwayo sokunikezelwa ngqo kwe-voltage ephakathi kumaziko edatha, kwaye iinkampani ezifana neJinpan Technology zigqibile uphuhliso lweeprototype ze-SST kwaye zathumela iisampulu kwi-NVIDIA.

Nangona ii-SST zisesekwinqanaba lokuqinisekiswa kweprototype/i-small-batch​ (kulindeleke ukuba zithengiswe ngomlinganiselo omkhulu ukususela ngo-2028 ukuya ku-2030), ulindelo lwemarike luphezulu—ingxelo yophando lweGuangda Securities ibonisa ukuba ii-SST kulindeleke ukuba zibe yinkqubela phambili kwiingxaki zamandla eziqhutywa ngamavili amabini "e-AI + amandla amatsha," kunye nobukhulu bemarike obukhula ukusuka kwi-6 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngo-2024 ukuya kwi-26.4 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngo-2027 (i-CAGR malunga ne-64%).

1. Ukunqongophala kobonelelo lwehlabathi kunye neenzuzo zaseTshayina: Ulawulo oluzimeleyo olupheleleyo lweCandelo loShishino luba luKhuphiswano oluPhambili​

Kwihlabathi liphela, ii-transformers ze-voltage ephakathi nephezulu zijongene nokunqongophala okukhulu kobonelelo: umsantsa wobonelelo lwee-transformers zamandla eMelika unyuke nge-116% xa kuthelekiswa nowama-2019, ukuphuculwa kwegridi yaseYurophu kuhamba kancinci ngenxa yokunqongophala kwee-transformer, kwaye iiprojekthi ezinkulu zelanga eIndiya azisebenzi ngelixa zilinde ii-transformers. Kwimeko enjalo, iTshayina, enama-60% omthamo wemveliso yehlabathi, ibe yeyona ixhamlileyo.

Iingenelo eziphambili zaseTshayina kwiitransformer zikwindlela yokulawula ezimeleyo esebenza kushishino olupheleleyo:

Izinto Eziphambili: Imveliso yesinyithi se-silicon (izinto "zentliziyo" zeetransformers) ifikelele kwi-3.0325 yezigidi zeetoni (2024), iphindwe kahlanu kuneJapan kwaye iphindwe kasibhozo kune-United States. I-Baosteel Group yakhe umgca wemveliso yesinyithi se-silicon esincinci kakhulu we-0.18mm emhlabeni, kwaye ukusebenza kwayo kuphezulu kwihlabathi liphela;

Ubuchwepheshe kunye noBuchule: Iqela leZixhobo zoMbane laseChina lidibanise amashishini afana ne-XD, i-Baobian, kunye ne-Shandong Electrical Engineering ukuze zenze uluhlu olupheleleyo lwamandla "e-UHV + amandla amatsha". Amashishini abucala afana ne-Xinjiang Tebian kunye ne-Jiangsu Huapeng akhokela ihlabathi ekuthumeleni ngaphandle amandla amatsha okuguqula umbane;

Ukusebenza kakuhle kokuhanjiswa: Umjikelo wokuhanjiswa kweetransformer eTshayina (umz., iinyanga ezili-10 kwiitransformer ezinkulu ze-UHV) mfutshane kakhulu kunowaseYurophu nase-United States (ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezili-18), kwaye iindleko ziphantsi (iimveliso zeenkcukacha ezifanayo zisiqingatha sexabiso lazo zaseYurophu naseMelika).

Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Agasti 2025, ixabiso lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-transformer eTshayina lifikelele kwi-29.711 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ukunyuka konyaka nge-36.3%, kunye nemarike yaseYurophu inyuka nge-138%. Abanye abathengi bazimisele ukuhlawula iprimiyamu ye-20% ukuqinisekisa ukubonelelwa.

1. Uphuhliso lweTekhnoloji kunye noPhuculo lweMizi-mveliso: i-UHV kunye ne-Offshore Wind Power njengeeNdawo eziPhambili​

Kutshanje, amashishini aseTshayina aphumelele kakhulu kwezobuchwepheshe kwi-UHV kunye namandla omoya aselunxwemeni kunye nezinye iindawo zokuguqula amandla ombane aphakathi naphezulu, nto leyo ekhuthaza ukuphuculwa kwemizi-mveliso:

Ii-UHV Transformers: I-transformer ye-±800kV UHV DC yeNkampani yeShenbian esetyenziswa kwiprojekthi ye-Jinshang-Hubei UHV iphucula amanqanaba okukhusela umbane ecaleni kwenethiwekhi nge-5%; I-transformer yejenereyitha ye-1000kV UHV yeXidian Xibian iqinisekisa ukusebenza ngexesha elifanelekileyo kweeprojekthi zamandla asebenza ngamalahle ezisebenzisa izigidi zeekhilowatt;

IiTransformers zamandla omoya zaseOffshore: Inkampani iShenbian iqalise i-transformer yokuqala ye-20Hz emhlabeni yamandla omoya aseOffshore engaphantsi komhlaba, ehlengahlengiswe kwiigridi eziguquguqukayo eziphantsi, yanciphisa ilahleko zothumelo nge-15%-20%, yaza yasetyenziswa kwifama yomoya eseOffshore eHuaene Yuhuan Phase II;

IiTransformers ezikrelekrele: Inkampani yeZixhobo zoBunjineli boMbane yaseShandong yenze itransformer encinci enezimbombo ezintathu ezingama-220kV, enciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi ngokulungiswa kwesakhiwo (umz., ulwakhiwo lokuqinisa ipleyiti yetanki) kwaye iphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwendibano ngama-35%, kunye namanqanaba okusebenza kakuhle kwamandla adlula imigangatho yesizwe.

1. Uqoqosho olujikelezayo kunye nokuveliswa ngokutsha: Indlela entsha yoTshintsho oluHlaza​

Ngokuphucula icebo "le-dual carbon", ukwenziwa ngokutsha kwe-transformer kube yindawo entsha ethandwayo kushishino. I-TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. isebenzisa "ukufakelwa kwe-digital nerve" (iitships zokuva ezikrelekrele) kunye "nokuvuselelwa kwamalungu" (ukuvuselelwa kwe-coil insulation, i-insulating oil deep dialysis) ukuguqula ii-transformers ze-220kV ezingasasebenziyo zibe zizixhobo ezisebenzisa amandla ngendlela efanelekileyo kunemigangatho yesizwe yeBanga loku-1. Ixabiso liyi-60% kuphela yeemveliso ezintsha, kwaye iyunithi enye ehlaziyiweyo inokonga i-70% yeendleko zokuthenga kwaye ibuyisele ixesha elibalulekileyo lokwakha.

Le modeli ayinciphisi nje kuphela iindleko zokuphucula igridi kodwa ikwanciphisa inkunkuma yezixhobo—ngokoqikelelo, ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kwiziko lokuvelisa ngokutsha kufana nokutyala amawaka eehektare zamahlathi, okuhambelana nolwalathiso lophuhliso "loqoqosho olujikelezayo."